Category: Musings

Raising interest rates… It’s the one thing that everyone is sure is going to happen, unless you are Japan or Europe or perhaps the United States. Long term bond interest rates in many of the developed world currencies are falling sometimes into negative rates. That means that some people are happy to receive most of...

Who cares about the knuckleheads at central banks – they are screwing the pooch in a royal fashion.  So many wonderful life changing technologies are emerging its a wonderful time to be alive. Two things that caught my attention today – “poo water” and 3d printed houses. Bill Gates was on Fallon talking about his...

San Diego even though it possess a great local ecosystem of innovation it does appear to be a red headed step child for the attraction of Venture Capital funding. I pulled this data from the PWC Moneytree website. You can see that in terms of total dollars San Diego is still attracting a similar amount...

The danger with valuations is they are a lot like a bikini – they show you a lot, they don’t show you everything. The current Case Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE ratio is currently 25.73. What does this mean?  Since January of 1881 to today the average PE ratio is 16.61, with a standard deviation of...

Every asset is valuable at the right price. What’s the right price is one of the most difficult questions to answer when it comes to investing.  We can try to forecast cash flow, margins of safety, operating margins, macro economic conditions and interest rates. It just gives us insights into what things might be worth...

Here’s a FlikStak that I created around the data points of inflation: https://flks.tk/SCq

Here is the monthly chart dump for August – enjoy.[gview file=”https://lanyonadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Observations-Aug-2014.pptx”]

Oh to have bought some when it was at such a lowly price….  Now that is has run up everyone seems to want some. Bitcoin fits the profile an extremely speculative investment – is value is determined in part by the greater fool theory – hopefully someone will pay more for it than I bought...

Seems to be a lot of rhetoric about the demise of economies with Fiat (paper based) currencies – they should all be “Gold Based”. Statements are uttered to the effect that without a gold based currency we will head into a hyper inflationary environment just like Zimbabwe and the Weimer republic.  This isn’t to argue...

The dilemma with the minimum wage debate is not that it is too low – it’s that people require it too live.  It should be viewed more as a failure of the education system, there are plenty of jobs available for people with a bachelors degree of better – as represented by the unemployment rate...